21

April 11, 2025, Natalia Romashkina, Head of the Group of Information Security Problems of IMEMO, Cand. of Science (Politics), made a presentation “Artificial Intelligence and Foreign Policy State Decision-Making: Reducing the Threat of Pathological Learning?” at the Roundtable on Military Cyber Stability (RMCS) “Pathological Learning and Foreign Policy Decision-Making” held by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). 

In international relations theory, it is generally accepted that states act as “rational actors,” but historical evidence shows that this assumption is often uncorrect. In organization theory, “effective learning” allows a system to successfully adapt to challenges from other actors in a changing environment, while “pathological learning” leads to maladaptive responses. In foreign policy decision making, deviations from the rational actor model and pathological learning increase national security threats in a rapidly changing technological and geopolitical environment. However, while these pathologies may seem irrational to an external analyst, they may have a purposeful internal logic that does not take into account foreign policy implications. For military cyber stability, these challenges include insecurity dilemmas, arms races, gray zone conflicts, cyber conflicts, deteriorating international relations, crisis instability, escalation, and declining strategic stability. Game theory suggests that cooperative solutions can mitigate cyber risks arising from these dynamics in many situations, but states too often fail to cooperate due to the results of pathological learning and poor decision making. The seminar explored leadership psychology, organizational dynamics, and cultural factors that influence pathological learning, as well as compensatory strategies to promote greater predictability and improve military cyber stability.

The Roundtable on Military Cyber Stability (RMCS) brings together leading scholars, analysts, industry experts, and government officials from around the world to intensify the thinking process in this environment, develop common research programs, and catalyze collaborative research. Within the framework of this process, RMCS develops and disseminates analytical foundation to stabilize the digital sphere, reduce interactive risks, and strengthen strategic stability.