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The socioeconomic, political and technological changes taking place in the vast Indo-Pacific Region have a serious impact on the system of international relations in the IPR. This makes it necessary for Russian foreign policy to take these changes into account and adapt to them in a timely manner. The Russian Armed Forces' special military operation in Ukraine has become a new factor influencing Russia's positioning in the IPR and its relations with the countries of the region. The noted changes pose many questions for analysts, both of an applied and fundamental-academic nature. Analysis of long-term and short-term trends in the development of international relations in the region is also required.  

These topics were the subject of discussion at the Roundtable "Indo-Pacific region: between "friendship" and "unfriendliness", held on October 17, 2022 by the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at IMEMO. The event was led by Academician Vasily Mikheev and  Cand. of Science (History) Andrei Ryabov.

The speeches were delivered by:

• Head of the Center for Asia Pacific Studies, Dr. of Sciense (History) Alexander Lomanov;
• Head of the School of Asian Studies of the Faculty of World Economy and International Relations at HSE University, Cand. of Sciences (History) Andrey Karneev;
• Head of the Sector of Economy and Politics of China, Cand. of Sciences (Economics) Sergey Lukonin;
• Alexey Kupriyanov, Head of Group on South Asia and the Indian Ocean, Cand. of Science (History); 
• Evgeny Kanaev, Lead Researcher of the Group of the Asia-Pacific Region Problems, Dr. of Science (History); 
• Chief Research Fellow of the Group of Regional Political Problems of the East and South, Dr. of Science (History) Victor Sumsky;
• Mikhail Terskikh, Research Fellow of the Group on South Asia and Indian Ocean Region, Cand. of Science (Politics);
• Kristina Voda, Senior Researcher of the Group of Economics and Politics of Japan, Cand. of Science (Politics);
• Vitaly Shvydko, Head of Group of Economics and Politics of Japan, Cand. of Science (Economics);
• Oleg Davydov, Senior Researcher of the Group of the Asia-Pacific Region Problems.

The participants of the Roundtable were unanimous in the opinion that the determining factor in the development of international relations in the region today is the state of US-China relations, which have a powerful influence on the positioning of other states, and directly or indirectly on their relations with Russia. A new factor that has a comprehensive impact on the current state of US-China relations is the realization by the ruling circles of both countries of the impossibility to return to the level and nature of relations that existed before 2012. The West, especially the US, has become convinced that under Xi Jinping China cannot be expected to continue its policy of democratization and openness, which, if implemented, would further bring China closer to the West and gradually Westernize it.  China has realized that the US, seeing China as a serious rival in the struggle for global leadership, is not interested in maintaining and developing the same level of economic and technological cooperation, but, on the contrary, has set a course for weakening China's position in the world. Under such conditions, China will objectively and in the long term be interested in maintaining close partnership relations with Russia. Only a dramatic change in US-China relations, their turn towards intensive cooperation, which can hardly be expected in the near future, can make it give up on this.

Russian-Indian relations are influenced by different, sometimes multidirectional interests. For example, the country's political leadership would like to maintain cooperative relations with Russia in the long-term and is afraid of its weakening under the pressure of Western sanctions. At the same time, large Indian businesses, deeply integrated into global economic ties, is very much afraid of secondary sanctions from the West, and therefore prefers to put relations with Russian companies "on hold”. On the other hand, India's medium-sized businesses, which have no access to global markets, is ready to cooperate with Russia. But interested Russian structures should understand that its potential is limited.  On the contrary, a significant part of the urban middle class in the country's largest cities, as well as the expert community, are under the strong ideological influence of the West and tend to blame Russia for the conflict in Ukraine. 

Difficulties of an objective nature arise for Russia in the development of relations with the ASEAN countries.  The member states of this association are primarily interested in technological development and the digitalization of their economies. However, it is very difficult for Russia to compete with China and developed countries of the West. At the same time, the ASEAN countries seek to avoid becoming involved in the Sino-US rivalry. With regard to the special military operation, the majority (8 states) of ASEAN have declared their unwillingness to join the anti-Russian sanctions and to keep the existing joint projects with Russia. However, they clearly adhere to the line of freezing relations with Russia, if only there is a threat of secondary sanctions against their banks and companies. Only one ASEAN country, Singapore, has imposed sanctions against Russia, but they have affected areas in which cooperation between Russia and this city-state has never existed. 

Japan joined the anti-Russian sanctions largely under pressure from the United States, although Tokyo realizes that the unequal nature of this union creates certain restrictions for the realization of Japan's foreign policy interests. At the same time, Japan's ruling circles would like to preserve the possibility of resuming dialogue with Russia in the future and hope to continue negotiations on a peace treaty. It is also important that Japan's sanctions do not affect culture, education and science. 

A similar position is taken by the leadership of the Republic of Korea, which joined the sanctions under strong pressure from Washington. Unlike Japan, they do not even want to end economic cooperation with Russia, and Russia still has certain opportunities for developing cooperation with this country. It would only be desirable to refrain from making impossible demands on Seoul, which is bound by close alliance relations with the United States.

As for the positions of the DPRK, there is virtually no potential for developing cooperation with this country. Pyongyang's political sympathy for Russia, which it has recently been publicly demonstrating, is opportunistic and personalistic in nature.

The discussion has shown that Russia still has opportunities for multifaceted cooperation with the Indo-Pacific Region states. The special military operation and the imposition of tough Western sanctions against the Russian Federatin have not radically affected Russia's relations with the countries of the region, much less destroyed them. There are no states in the vast region with a consistently unfriendly line against Russia. At the same time, due to the size of the region and its intraregional diversity, Russia needs to use differentiated approaches to develop relations with the Indo-Pacific Region countries, taking into account the diversity of interests of the states in the region and actively pursue its own initiatives, which could attract the interest of its partners.