// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2020. No 1(58). P. 103-121
Andrei Lankov is Professor of Kookmin University (Seoul, South Korea)
For decades, a number of observers argued that the North Korean regime was on the brink of collapse. However, the regime has demonstrated remarkable resilience and probably will persist for a long time. The article deals with the factors that either pose a threat to regime’s stability (above all, the existence of rich, free, and attractive South Korea) or contribute to its consolidation (cohesion of elites). The post-2011 policy of North Korea is also analyzed as a set of measures that are primarily aimed at neutralizing external and internal threats to the regime’s long-term stability. While a possibility of a sudden collapse of the Kim family’s regime cannot be excluded, it is more likely that the regime will keep the country under its control for the foreseeable future.
North Korea, DPRK, reforms, political stability, elite
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