After The Caliphate: What Is the Future of ISIS?

1611
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-12-55-64

A. Yashlavskii (dosier@mail.ru), 
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation



Abstract

A loss of the territories which were under control of the terrorist group “Islamic State” (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq has significantly weakened the extremists’ facilities not only on the battlefields in these countries. The ISIS propaganda machine is undermined, too. However, it does not mean a complete victory over the “Islamic State”. The group still demonstrates a capability to adapt to new conditions, proceeds with the use of new tactics (a sabotage and guerrilla activity, terrorist attacks, etc.). The IS transformation from a “quasi-state” towards a global terrorist organization without a territorial bond designates considerable increase of this group’s peril on a regional and global level. The continuing instability in the conflict zone raises serious concerns referring to a capability of the ISIS revitalization and even some kind of revenge (including a takeover of territories). There is also a possibility of IS militants’ relocation to different regions of the world both in conflict areas (Afghanistan, Yemen, Lybia, etc.) and other countries (not excepting European countries and Russia). In this context, there is a real danger of foreign Jihadi fighters’ returning to their home countries for sabotage and terrorist activities, as well as for creation of “autonomous Jihad” sleeper cells. The ISIS will continue to inspire its present-day followers and recruit new ones (especially among young people) in different countries of the world. It makes coordination of international counter-terrorist efforts and use of “smart force” against the IS necessary. 


Keywords

extremism, Islamism, Salafi Jihadism, Islamic State, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Boko Haram, Middle East, terrorism, ISIS, ISIL, IS, Caliphate 


REFERENCES

1. Winter Ch. Is Islamic State losing control of its ‘virtual caliphate’? Available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41845285 (accessed 17.01.2018).

2. Clarke C.P. How ISIS is Transforming: Why Predictions of its Demise are Premature. Foreign Affairs, 09.25.2017. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2017-09-25/how-isis-transforming (accessed 16.02.2018).

3. Dempsey M.P. How ISIS’ Strategy is Evolving: What the U.S. Can Do to Counter the Group’s Shifting Tactics. Foreign Affair, 18.01.2018. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2018-01-18/how-isis-strategy-evolving (accessed 16.02.2018).

4. Levitt M. Shutting the Door to the Islamic State. Available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/closing-the-door-against-isis (accessed 16/01/2018).

5. United Nations Security Council. Twenty-first report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities. Available at: http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2018/14 (accessed 02.03.2018).

6. Jones S.G. Islamic State 2.0. Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/08/islamic-state-20.html (accessed 16.02.2018)

7. Dubin R. Coalition Analysis Warns of Potential Islamic State Resurgence: The militant group is on the run, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be back. Foreign Policy, 10.01.2018. Available at: foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/10/coalition-analysis-warns-of-potential-islamic-state-resurgence-iraq-isis-isil-terrorism-military/ (accessed 16.02.2018).

8. Bahney B., Johnston P.B. ISIS Could Rise Again. Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/12/isis-could-rise-again.html (ccessed 16.02.2018).

9. Zelin A.Y. Interpreting the Fall of Islamic State Governance. Available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/interpreting-the-fall-of-islamic-state-governance (accessed 16.01.2018)

10. Hashim A.S. The Caliphate at War: Operational Realities and Innovations of the Islamic State. New York, Oxford University Press, 2018. 392 p.

11. Rolling Back the Islamic State. Jones S.G., Dobbins J., Byman D. et al, eds. Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 2017. 296 p.

12. McNally L., Amiral A. The Islamic State in Afghanistan: Examining its Threat to Stability. Middle East Institute. May 2016. Available at: https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/publications/PF12_McNallyAmiral_ISISAfghan_web.pdf (accessed 01.03.2018).

13. Hassan H. Its dreams of a caliphate are gone. Now ISIS has a deadly new strategy. The Guardian, 31.12.2017. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/31/isis-dreams-of-caliphate-gone-now-deadly-new-strategy (accessed 16.02.2018).

14. Nance M. Defeating ISIS: Who They Are, How They Fight, What They Believe. New York, Skyhorse Publishing, 2016. 544 p.

15. The World Almanac of Islamism 2017. Lanham, Md., Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2017. 1158 p.

16. Pack J., Smith R., Mezran K. The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya. Available at: http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/The_Origins_and_Evolution_of_ISIS_in_Libya_web_0705.pdf (accessed 27.02.2018).

17. Ward A. Why the Fall of the “Caliphat”’ in Syria” Will Not Ease Western Security Concerns. Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/11/why-the-fall-of-the-caliphate-in-syria-will-not-ease.html (ccessed 16.02.2018)

18. Ward A. Why Africa Could Provide an “ISIS Renaissance”? Available at: https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/11/why-africa-could-provide-an-isis-renaissance.html (accessed 28.02.2018).

19. Wirtschafter J., Gadiaga K. J. Africa Becomes the New Battleground for ISIS and Al-Qaeda as They Lose Ground in Mideast. USA Today, 25.10.2017. Available at: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/10/25/africa-becomes-new-battleground-isis-and-al-qaeda-they-lose-ground-mideast/796148001/ (accessed 16.02.2018).

20. Johnston P.B., Clarke C.P. Is the Philippines the Next Caliphate? ISIS is Looking to Regroup, and is Setting Its Sights Eastward. Foreign Policy, 27.11.2017. Available at: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/27/is-the-philippines-the-next-caliphate/ (accessed 16.02.2018).

21. Cafarella J., Zhou J. ISIS’s Expanding Campaign in Europe. War. Available at: http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISIS%20in%20Europe%20Update%20September-2017.pdf (accessed 27.02.2018).

22. De Kerchove G. Preparing to Counter ISIS2.0: European CT Efforts Since Charlie Hebdo. Available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/preparing-to-counter-isis-2.0-european-ct-efforts-since-charlie-hebdo (accessed 16.01.2018). 


Registered in system SCIENCE INDEX

For citation:
Yashlavskii A. After The Caliphate: What Is the Future of ISIS?. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2018, vol. 62, No 12, pp. 55-64. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-12-55-64



Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







Indexed
 
Current Issue
2020, vol. 64, No. 5
Topical Themes of the Issue:

  • eijing’s Pain Points
  • International Role of Euro and European Integration
  • Sources and Trends of Japanese International Relations Theories
  • New Dimensions of Identity Politics: Contested Memories in History Museums of the 20th Century
View This Issue (2020, vol. 64, No. 5)
Submit an Article

Dear readers!
Please note that free access to full-text issues of the Journal is being opened at our WEB-site after 6 months of the date of publications. Currently, the releases of 2015–2018 are available for free. The work on deepening the open archive of full-text issues will be continued.

Dear readers!
This is to inform the researchers of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations that electronic version of the 4-nd issue of 2019 of French magazine Politique étrangère is now available. Those who are interested, please personally address to the editorial staff of MEMO Journal (room 18-17) with an electronic media (e-mailing is not possible because of technical reasons).

NEW SECTION

In response to the challenges of our time the Editorial board continues to open new thematic rubrics:

“The Common Spaces”. The XX century was marked by the process of active development of the so-called common spaces, namely the World ocean, outer space and the Internet which, due to various reasons, were previously perceived as peripheral for the mankind and were not used at all or less intensively. Since then, the degree of their development and usage is constantly increasing. Even though the prospects of obtaining material dividends from their use are often extremely remote, the level of competition there is steadily increasing, resulting in growing inter-state conflicts’ potential.

“Silk Road and prospects of Great Eurasia”. It is planned to publish materials concerning the Chinese project of Silk Road and its impact on the socio-economic development of various countries in Eurasia and the integration processes in this mega-region.

“Africa today and tomorrow”The rubric devoted to contemporary issues of Africa which is attracting growing interest of the world's leading actors. We plan to publish the articles analyzing the status of statehood, socio-economic and political development of the countries of Black continent, as well as the integration processes between them.

“Civilization processes of modern development” is a new rubric opened by MEMO Journal in 2020. It will be devoted to the analysis of the influence of civilizational factors and inter-civilizational interactions on the political and socio-economic development of the world at whole, regions and countries.

Dear colleagues, authors and readers!

We kindly request you to turn to editor-in-chief and executive secretary directly concerning reviewing scientific publications in our journal. Only editor-in-chief takes decision on order and publication the reviews!

CONTEST!

"World Eonomy and International Relations" announces a contest for the best joint academic publications of domestic and foreign researchers and experts in topical issues of the world economy and international relations. The winners will be selected according to the results of peer reviewing and discussion at the Editorial Board. The articles will be published in priority order.

SUBSCRIBE TO THE JOURNAL

The print version of “World Economy and International Relations” journal is distributed by advance subscription only, and is not offered for retail sale. To subscribe please address to any post office in Russia by referring to the Federal Postal Service Union Catalogue, section “ARSMI”, the journal index is 70542. The subscription may be made for the whole subscription period or starting from any nearest available month for desired number of issues.

To purchase the full-text electronic version of the journal’s issue/article please address to the WEB portal of Scientific electronic library eLIBRARY.ru or URL: https://press.gaugn.ru/.

In journal
WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
                     Full
                     Subjects
                     Authors
                     Articles by year
                     Authors by year
Years
2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |

The author’s opinions may not coincide with the position of editorial