The more developed regions of the world are expected to face dramatic demographic changes in the coming decades. A sharp fall in fertility and a steady rise in life expectancy will shift the age profile of societies in the 21st century altering radically their economic and social life. Ageing populations present serious challenges of labour scarcity, deceleration in long-term economic growth, equity markets volatility, unprecedented burden on pensions and medical care systems, increasing of poverty and social inequality, etc. At the same time, the increase in healthy life expectancy, the modification of elderly peoples’ image and their role in a society bring (at least potentially) certain assets – the so-called longevity dividend. It contributes, on the one hand, to prolongation of working life and retaining of valuable productive staff in the work force, and, on the other hand, to creation of a solid and rapidly expanding demand for special goods and services designed for older people. Such changes in labour resources supply and in consumer models open a new chapter in the global North countries development, associated with formation of an emerging longevity society and promotion of a “silver economy”. Given the bleak prospects of unhealthy and passive ageing and promising opportunities of healthy and active longevity, these societies are to develop an adequate and effective policy response to these changes. Such approach should include short-term preventive and damping measures, as well as long-term strategy of package creative and responsible actions which could prepare the society and its economy for future large-scale changes.
population ageing, demographic challenges, labour resources, social welfare, healthy and active longevity, “longevity divident”, “silver economy”
1. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Report 2014: The Silver Dollar – Longevity Revolution. Available at: http://www.longfinance.net/images/reports/pdf/baml_silverdollar_2014.pdf (accessed 15.10.2016).
2. Global Agenda Council on Migration. 2016. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/communities/global-agenda-council-on-migration (accessed 17.11.2016).
3. Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and a Challenge. New York, UNFPA, 2012. 190 p.
4. World Population Prospects: the 2015. Revision. Available at: http://www.esa.un.org/unpd/wpp (accessed 15.11.2016).
5. Vishnevskii A. Vremya demograficheskikh peremen [Time for Demographic Changes]. Moscow, Publishing House of the HSE, 2015. 517 p.
6. Gordon R. The Demise of U. S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections. NBER WP, 2014, no. 19895. 41 p.
7. Global Growth: Can Productivity Save the Day in an Aging World? McKinsey Global Institute, 2015. 136 p. Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/can-long-term-global-growth-be-saved (accessed 20.12.2016).
8. Leis M., Gijsbers G. Active and Healthy Ageing – A Long-term View up to 2050. Brussels, European Foresight Platform, 2011. 70 р.
9. The Economic Consequences of Population Aging. Report on a Technical Policy Seminar. National Transfer Accounts Bulletin, 2011, no. 3, pp. 1-16.
10. Pensions at a Glance 2015: OECD and G20 indicators. Paris, OECD, 2015. 375 p.
11. Bogetic Z. et al. Fiscal Policy Issues in the Aging Societies. MFM Discussion Paper, 2015, no. 1. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/21782/952660NWP0MFM000Box385292B00PUBLIC0.pdf; sequence=1 (accessed 12.11.2016).
12. Kluge F., Zagheni E, Loichinger E., Vogt T. The Advantages of Demographic Change after the Wave: Fewer and Older, but Healthier, Greener, and More Productive? PLoS ONE, 2014, no. 9(9): e108501 (DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.010850).
13. Global Population Ageing: Peril or Promise? Geneva, World Economic Forum, 2011. 144 p.
14. Older Workers Scoreboard, 2004, 2007 and 2014. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/employment/emp/ageingandemploymentpolicies.htm (accessed 21.10.2016).
15. The Silver Economy as a Pathway for Growth. 2014. 15 p. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/sti/the-silver-economy-as-a-pathway-to-growth.pdf (accessed 21.10.2016).
16. The 2012 Ageing Report: Economic and Budgetary Projections for the EU27 Member States (2010–2060). The European Economy, 2012, no. 2. 470 p.
17. Vlandas T. The Political Effects of Ageing on Inflation. Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2016, no. 51 (5), pp. 266-271.
18. Göbel C., Zwick T. Are Personnel Measures Effective in Increasing Productivity of Old Workers? Labour Economics, June 2013, pp. 80-93.
19. Docquier F., Machado J., Sekkat K. Efficiency Gains from Liberalizing Labor Mobility. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2015, no. 2, pp. 303-346.
20. Herrmann M. The Economic Challenges of Population Aging in Emerging Markets. Modern Economy, 2014, no. 5, рp. 161-173.
21. Matching Economic Migration with Labour Market Needs in Europe. OECD Policy Brief, S.l., OECD–UE, September 2014. 23 р.
22. Growing the European Silver Economy. European Commission Background Paper. S.l., EC, 23 February 2015. 29 p.
23. The Future of Japan: Reigniting Productivity and Growth. McKinsey Global Institute, 2015. 128 p. Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/how-a-private-sector-transformation-could-revive-japan (accessed 16.10.2016).
24. A Window of Opportunity for Europe. McKinsey Global Institute, 2015. 54 p. Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/europe/a-window-of-opportunity-for-europe (accessed 21.10.2016).
25. Кувшинова О. Серебряная экономика. Ведомости, 15.02.2011. [Kuvshinova O. Serebryanaya ekonomika [Silver Economy]. Vedomosti, 15.02.2011.
26. Human Development Report 2015. New York, UNDP, 2015. 273 p.
Registered in system SCIENCE INDEX