China: Personal Power Regime and New Five-Year Plan

635
DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2016-60-10-5-16

V. Mikheev, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation (mikheev@imemo.ru)
S. Lukonin, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation (sergeylukonin@mail.ru)
Jeh Sung Hoon, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS), 107, Imun-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, 02450, Republic of Korea (hufsbart@gmail.com



Abstract

Xi Jinping keeps concentrating the power in order to weaken the opposition to reforms and overcome the resistance of anti-corruption campaign opponents. In this context, the domestic political tension is growing. The uncharacteristic candor of senior party officials who openly express their dissatisfaction with Xi's policy in Chinese media demonstrates such tension. However, growing dissatisfaction does not create critical threats to Xi’ power. Nevertheless, the intensification of political struggle can be expected before the 2017 CPC Congress when Xi will try to surround himself with people of the ministerial level personally loyal to him. The arrangements of the Chinese leadership in the economic sphere defined in the China's 13th Five-Year Plan on National Economic and Social Development are no longer perceived by the business with the same confidence. To the most important elements of the Plan belong the so-called Supply-side reform and "One belt, one road" concept. Details of the “Supply-side Reform” are not yet clear. However, it is possible to assume that its main provisions will be aimed at increasing of the high quality goods and services supply, as well as at reduction of the excess production facilities capacity. The main mechanism of the Reform implementation will be the fiscal policy – reducing of direct and indirect taxes for private companies that, according to the government's idea, should stimulate investments in innovation and thus increase the output of high-quality and hi-tech goods. However, the authorities did not abandon the traditional "troika" of economic growth – investment, consumption, export. During the 13th five-year plan, these three components will retain their function, although the balance will shift in favor of the high-quality and innovative products consumption. The Plan will be implemented in an environment of greater politico-economic uncertainty and unpredictability of the central authorities' decisions consequences. A balance on many critical issues has not yet been found, and seems to be determined "empirically". 


Keywords

world economy, China, the China's 13th Five-Year Plan on National Economic and Social Development, Supply-side reform, Silk Road economic belt 


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For citation:
Mikheev V., Lukonin S., Jeh S. China: Personal Power Regime and New Five-Year Plan. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2016, vol. 60, No 10, pp. 5-16. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2016-60-10-5-16



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