Long-term forecast of trends in terrorism

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Long-term forecast of trends in terrorism
// Pathways to Peace and Security. 2016. no 1(50). P. 39-52



Abstract

The article summarizes the main trends in global terrorism (concerning scale, intensity, regional distribution, dominant ideological-motivational types, financing and information and communication support of terrorist activity) and discusses their potential evolution in the next 20 years and the main factors that could affect it. It also looks into the present correlation of long-term trends in terrorism and in armed conflicts and places the evolution of terrorism in the broader context of all one-sided violence against civilians. Finally, it explores the potential for unexpected risks and new threats related to terrorism. The author emphasizes the need to go beyond protection against expected threats to improve the overall resilience of the system under threat as a long-term strategy to reduce terrorism risks. 


Keywords

terrorism, threat assessment, risk forecasting, transnationalization, intensity, lethality, regional distribution, extremist ideologies, organizational forms, information and communication effect 


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For citation:
Stepanova E. Long-term forecast of trends in terrorism. Pathways to Peace and Security, 2016, no 1(50), pp. 39-52



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