Bubnova Natalia
“Tailored” Country Strategies in the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review
Publication Type:
Rubric:


ISSN 2542-0240 (Print)

DOI 10.23932/2542-0240-2018-11-6-21-39

The new U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), published in January 2018, stipulates a “tailored” strategy towards each country which Washington sees as presenting a nuclear challenge to the United States. Yet each “tailored” strategy is based on the same reiterated assumption that the U.S. measures and programs are allegedly developed in response to external hostile actions. The NPR cites other countries’ aggressive behavior and military buildup as the reason to reinstitute the role of nuclear weapons as the key component of the U.S. deterrent, modernize the U.S. strategic triad and dual-capable aircraft, develop new small-yield warheads, create sea-launched cruise missiles, and reinforce the C3 systems to support all these. These initiatives go along with the new expanded understanding of “extreme circumstances” which allows for a U.S. nuclear response to a non-nuclear attack, as well as with other new features of the U.S. nuclear doctrine: the creation of “more usable” types of nuclear weapons, the integration of nuclear and conventional elements of planning and operations, the enhanced focus on cyber threats, and the prioritization of “flexibility,” “uncertainty,” and “hedging” – which all increase the danger of an actual use of nuclear weapons. The NPR presents Russia as a higher threat compared to China, while China – as a major challenge to the United States in the Asian region. Yet the NPR does not call these two states “adversaries” and stresses the need to avoid confrontation and an arms race. Besides Russia’s “aggressive policies,” military programs and bellicose declarations, the NPR focuses on her alleged adherence to the concept of “escalation for de-escalation”  – early first use of nuclear weapons to end a conventional conflict on favorable terms – a notion that the NPR sets to counteract. The requirements formulated by the NPR towards Iran and North Korea include ensuring their non-nuclear status, countering their growing influence in respectively the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, preventing the transfer of nuclear and missile technologies and sensitive materials to third parties and states, and convincingly demonstrating that their aggression, including a conventional one, would be met with resolute action by the United States and its allies. Yet, in a shuffle of a kind, opposite to how the Obama Administration renounced military solution to the Iran problem and chose negotiations with this country with no preliminary condition,  – and at the same time preferred the tactics of isolating North Korea and disregarding its claims,  – now it is with Seoul that Washington may engage, while simultaneously demonstrating a tough line towards Teheran. Yet the shifts towards a settlement on the Korean Peninsula, along with certain signs of restraint in the NPR, offer some grounds to hope that – given political will and active international efforts – the worst-case scenarios and further deterioration of international situation may still be avoided.


Keywords: tailored approach | U.S. nuclear doctrine | deterrence | Nuclear Posture Review | U.S. military strategy | nuclear weapons | U.S.-Russia relations | nuclear modernization programs | China | North Korean nuclear problem | denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula | the Iran Deal | «nuclear escalation for de-escalation» concept |

Russian Science Citation Index



OTHER PUBLICATIONS ON THIS TOPIC

Romashkina Natalia
Computer malware attack on Iran's nuclear program

Bogdanov Konstantin
The Military-Strategic Balance in Europe and Limited Nuclear Options

Bubnova Natalia
Trump Administration New National Security Strategy

Arbatov Alexey
Идеи академика А. Д. Сахарова и стратегическая стабильность // Вестник Российской академии наук. 2021. Т. 91, № 12. С. 1104-1107. DOI 10.31857/S0869587321120033.

Baranovsky Vladimir , Buzhinsky E., Zagorskii Andrei, Nikitin Alexander, Oznobishchev S.
Avoiding nuclear war. Problems of escalation/de-escalation of armed conflicts when approaching the “nuclear threshold”

Arbatov Alexey
The Ten Aporias of Our Time. The Theory and Practice of Nuclear Deterrence. – Polis. Political Studies. 2021. No. 5. P. 88-111. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2021.04.08

Bogdanov Konstantin
Ядерные силы и ядерная стратегия Китайской Народной Республики [Текст] / К. В. Богданов // Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право. – 2018. – Т. 11. – № 6. – С. 81-95. DOI: 10.23932/2542-0240-2018-11-6-81-95.

Savel'ev Alexander
Ядерное сдерживание, стратегическая стабильность, противоракетная оборона. Даёт ли ядерный арсенал подлинную безопасность государствам // Россия в глобальной политике. 2023. Т. 21, № 5. С. 20-34. DOI 10.31278/1810-6439-2023-21-5-20-34.

Снижение боеготовности ядерных сил России и США – путь к уменьшению ядерной угрозы. Рук. авт. коллектива А.А. Пикаев. М., ИМЭМО РАН, 2001, 2,1 п.л.

Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security / IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2015. Edited by A. Arbatov, S. Oznobishchev. Moscow: IMEMO, 2016, 203 p.

Korean Nuclear Crisis: Prospects of De-escalation. Eds. A.G. Arbatov, V.Z. Dvorkin, S.K. Oznobishchev. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 68 p.

Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security / IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Year-book 2017. Edited by A. Arbatov, S. Oznobishchev. – Moscow: IMEMO, 2018. – 201 p.

Romashkina Natalia
Северная Корея и Иран в новой системе международных военно-политических отношений: ядерный фактор. Н.П.Ромашкина. М. : Научная книга, 2007, 99 с.

Неядерные факторы ядерного разоружения (противоракетная оборона, высокоточные обычные вооружения, космическое оружие) Авт. коллектив – Арбатов А.Г., Дворкин В.З., Ознобищев С.К. М., ИМЭМО РАН, 2010, 73 с.

Перспективы присоединения Индии и Пакистана к ограничению ядерных вооружений. Под ред. А.Г. Арбатова, В.З. Дворкина, С.К. Ознобищева. М., ИМЭМО РАН, 2012, 65 с.

Topychkanov Peter, Yu.V. Ustinova
On the Prospects for the Second Islamic Bomb: Comparison of the External Conditions of the Nuclear Program Development in Pakistan and Iran.

Перспективы трансформации ядерного сдерживания. Под ред. А.Г. Арбатова, В.З. Дворкина, С.К. Ознобищева. М., ИМЭМО РАН, 2011, 81 с.

Davydov Oleg
Северная Корея возобновила ракетные испытания: что дальше?. [Текст] / О.В. Давыдов // Russia Policy Review. – 2017. – Т. 1. – № 3. – С. 44-46.

Bubnova Natalia
U.S. - Russia Relations and Arms Control: Breaking the Clinch

Arms Control: Does It Have A Future? Ed. S.K. Oznobishchev, A.I. Nikitin. Moscow: Russian Association of Political Science (Political Science Association), Russian Political Encyclopedia (ROSSPEN), 2013, 279 p.
Related publications


Comments (0)

No comments

Add comment







First news
Institute News
27/03/2024

On March 27, 2024, a meeting of the Academic Council of IMEMO was held in the Academician Inozemtsev conference hall.

more...

26/03/2024

On March 26, 2024, the International Scientific Conference "XII. Security and Development in Central Eurasia" was held in the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia in a mixed format.

more...

Recently Published